At least two factors are thought to have influenced India’s position change. One was an election scheduled for May, in which Modi’s failure to avenge the death of Indian soldiers could cost him at the elections. The famous aggression of Indian television and social media networks may have prompted the government to take decisive action.
The second is the growing isolation of Pakistan. President Trump refused to provide hundreds of millions of dollars in security assistance because of Pakistan’s failure to curb militant groups to attack US forces in Afghanistan.
However, some analysts say the picture is getting darker.
The impact of India’s attack has yet to be determined. Indian officials suggested that they had targeted the supposed training facility used by Jaish-e-Muhammad. Pakistan declared an air raid on an uninhabited forest.
The next day, Pakistani fighters attacked Indian jets through Kashmir. During the gunfight, each party claimed to have shot down the aircraft of the other party.
Happymon Jacob, security expert and professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi, said that the Indian side seemed surprised after their aircraft was shot down. According to Jacob, this is more like the action driven by the political situation before the election than the outcome of the military plan.
While no country has criticized Indian attacks, Jacob said that New Delhi would be wrong to see Pakistan completely isolated. Trump’s reconciliation efforts with the Taliban demand Pakistan’s cooperation in bringing leaders to the negotiating table.
With the anti-Indian attitude rising in Kashmir, the area is mostly Muslim, the Indian force is attacked again is only a late matter.
“Maybe in the next confrontation, we will see a military conflict instead of retaliation” said Professor Chellaney of the Strategic Research Center.